Are Human Reasoning Abilities Declining?

In a piece at the Financial Times (and in a Bluesky thread about it), John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data reporter for the newspaper, goes over some of the worrying findings that might support a conclusion that human capacities to reason and understand are “deteriorating,” especially since the early-to-mid 2010s.

He clarifies that what he is talking about are not changes to “the fundamental biology of the human brain” over the past 10 to 15 years, but rather the effects of social, technological, educational, and situational changes on our ability to think well.

While I’m not in a position to assess whether Burn-Murdoch is giving us a complete picture of the relevant data, what he does share seems worrisome.

The data includes:

• declining average scores for teens on science, reading, and math assessments
• declining average scores for adults on numeracy and literacy
• increased reports by 18-year-olds in “difficulty thinking or concentrating” and “trouble learning new things”
• decline of leisure-time reading

Burn-Murdoch notes that the early-to-mid 2010s drop-offs we see across much of this data corresponds with “our changing relationship with information, available constantly online.” He continues:

Most discussion about the societal impacts of digital media focuses on the rise of smartphones and social media. But the change in human capacity for focused thought coincides with something more fundamental: a shift in our relationship with information. We have moved from finite web pages to infinite, constantly refreshed feeds and a constant barrage of notifications. We no longer spend as much time actively browsing the web and interacting with people we know but instead are presented with a torrent of content. This represents a move from self-directed behaviour to passive consumption and constant context-switching.

The data seem relevant to the discussion here and elsewhere earlier this month about “the average college student at the average college” these days.

It may also point to an opportunity for colleges and universities to respond to what could be considered a “critical reasoning crisis” by supporting and promoting philosophy departments and other departments whose work and teaching are primarily oriented around reasoning well. Admittedly, there is only so much that additional critical reasoning courses at the college level could likely do to move the needle on this data. Broader cultural changes are needed, including, perhaps, a reconsideration of the educational environment of children and young adults.

(via Victor Ronsin)