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The bitcoin market is no longer one of seller exhaustion, Glassnode says, but how long will the rebound last for?
Aug 12, 2025, 1:34 a.m.
Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin staged a sharp recovery over the past week, rebounding from a dip below $114,000 to trade near $121,000, in what Glassnode described in a recent report as a shift from “seller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent ATHs.”
The rally, however, came without a surge in spot market participation.
Glassnode data shows spot trading volumes fell 22% to $5.7 billion, close to their statistical low band, suggesting the rebound has been driven more by positioning shifts than deep conviction buying. The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta flipped 94% toward buy pressure, a sign that aggressive selling has been replaced by renewed demand, but not yet across a broad base of traders.
On the derivatives side, leveraged traders re-engaged aggressively, Glassnode detailed in its report.
Perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta, a measure of the buy-sell pressure in perps, jumped 88%, funding rates remained elevated, and options open interest climbed 6.7% to $42.4 billion. Yet, volatility pricing collapsed by almost a third, indicating a degree of complacency that has historically preceded large market moves.
ETF flows offered some relief, with U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETF outflows halving to $311 million from $686 million the prior week. Even so, ETF trade volume fell 27.7% to $13.7 billion, keeping activity near its low band.
QCP Capital framed the weekend surge, which briefly pushed BTC above $122,000, as a function of thin order books and a broader risk-on shift in global markets.
“Crypto staged an impressive comeback over the weekend during thin, low-liquidity trading hours,” the Singapore-based trading firm wrote, noting that the bounce aligned with a rebound in U.S. equities and growing expectations for a September Fed rate cut.
While on-chain activity improved, active addresses jumped 8.4% to 793,000, and fee volume rose 10%. Glassnode cautioned that elevated profitability levels could quickly turn into selling pressure if sentiment shifts. With 94.1% of supply in profit and the realized profit-to-loss ratio climbing to 1.9, the market may be nearing a point where profit-taking accelerates.
The combination of thin liquidity, bullish derivatives positioning, and macro-driven optimism leaves Bitcoin primed for volatile moves as it approaches all-time highs, with the next test likely coming from Tuesday’s U.S. CPI release.
Polymarket traders lean toward a modest uptick in line with consensus that would likely keep BTC consolidating, with hotter prints posing a short-term headwind by delaying Fed cuts and softer readings offering a potential breakout catalyst if ETF flows and spot activity strengthen.
(CoinDesk)
Market Movers
BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $118k as traders pull back and position themselves for the possibility that Tuesday's CPI report might break BTC's momentum.
ETH: Ethereum is trading at $4200. Analysts say that ETH's rally is partially due to increased capacity on-chain and lower DeFi costs.
Gold: Gold slid to $3,355.13 as upbeat risk sentiment and Trump’s pledge to exclude gold from tariffs weighed on safe-haven demand, though losses were cushioned by rising Fed rate cut bets ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high after the U.S.-China trade truce was extended, while investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected rate cut.
S&P 500: U.S. stocks eased, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and just under its record, as investors await new inflation data .Meanwhile, Citigroup and UBS lifted their year-end S&P 500 targets, citing easing policy risks and solid earnings, with Citi raising its forecast to 6,600 and UBS to 6,100.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin Now Accepts Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana for Spaceflights (Decrypt)
- Rumble Gains on Plans to Acquire Tether-Affiliated Northern Data (CoinDesk)
- Senate Banking Committee Democratic staff slam GOP crypto draft bill as ‘superhighway’ for dodging regulation (The Block)
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
Sam Reynolds
Sam Reynolds is a senior reporter based in Asia. Sam was part of the CoinDesk team that won the 2023 Gerald Loeb award in the breaking news category for coverage of FTX's collapse. Prior to CoinDesk, he was a reporter with Blockworks and a semiconductor analyst with IDC.
AI Boost
“AI Boost” indicates a generative text tool, typically an AI chatbot, contributed to the article. In each and every case, the article was edited, fact-checked and published by a human. Read more about CoinDesk's AI Policy.
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Bitcoin Pulls Back to $119K as Looming Inflation Data Could Bring Price Swings
Tuesday's CPI inflation data, followed by PPI report later this week, could make or break bitcoin's momentum, Bitfinex analysts said.
What to know:
- Bitcoin's overnight surge above $122,000 met with heavy selling, pushing prices below $119,000 later in the U.S. session.
- Ether held up above $4,200, while major altcoins SOL, DOGE, SUI declined 3%-4%.
- Bitfinex analysts suggest BTC's momentum will depend on upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data, with potential for increased volatility.
