Ask HN: How likely it is that the AI bubble will pop next year?

I think a pivotal moment will be the launch of GPT-5 and deepseek R2. If these models will not be exponentially better than the current frontier models, I doubt that investors will still pour money into the current AI model.

How likely do you think it is that this comes to an end soon? IMHO current valuations are ridiculous indicating we have reached the peak.