Bitcoin ‘bear market confirmed’: Watch these BTC price levels next

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Key takeaways

Bitcoin onchain data reveals that the market could be entering a macro downtrend.
The psychological level at $100,000 remains the main BTC support for now.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to four-month lows of $98,900 on Tuesday, as analysts say that BTC was “transitioning into a bear market.”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Bitcoin price action has established a new range on lower time frames, and market observers are watching the following key support levels below.

Bitcoin is entering a bear market

Private wealth manager Swissblock stated that the Bitcoin risk-off signal destabilized as selling pressure intensified over the last few days.

Swissblock highlighted that the indicator is “still within a low-risk regime,” as shown in the chart below.

However, “if it transitions into a high-risk, it would signal a potential trend shift,” the private wealth manager said, adding:

“If the indicator enters and stays in a high-risk, it would suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning into a bear market, marking a structural change rather than a short-term correction.”

Echoing this observation, onchain data provider Glassnode pointed out that the monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by approximately 62%, from $338 million per month in mid-August to $127 million per month as of Tuesday.

This signals reduced bullish leverage, which often precedes price tops and hints at a possible bearish shift in the broader market trend.

Glassnode said:

“This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.”

“Bear market confirmed,” said analyst Mikybull Crypto in a Wednesday X post highlighting the breakout of the USDt (USDT) market dominance from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the weekly time frame.

“Similar formation in previous cycles led to a bear market,” Mikybull Crypto said in a follow-up post.

A breakout in USDT dominance would signal rising stablecoin preference, indicating risk aversion and capital exiting BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

This will typically pressure BTC price downward in the short term, reflecting bearish crypto market sentiment and potential further declines as capital is sidelined.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

The latest sell-off has seen the BTC/USD pair draw down 20% from its all-time high above $126,000.

Bitcoin has also dropped below the short-term holders’ cost basis of around $113,00, a structure that has historically preceded the onset of a mid-term bearish phase, as recent buyers continue to capitulate.

Bitcoin has now “lost the support at the 85th percentile cost basis” around $109,000, said Glassnode in a Tuesday post on X, adding:

“The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.”

“$BTC Now broke below its 10th of October low,” Trader Daan Crypto Trades said in a Tuesday post on X, referring to the Oct. 10 crypto market crash that sent Bitcoin to $103,500 in Bitstamp.

“This is the last major level before the $98K low from the Middle Eastern war fud back in June.”

The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap reveals a high concentration of liquidations near the June lows, around $98,000, with the yellow area indicating a cluster of leveraged positions, suggesting it’s a key support level.

If $98,000 is broken, it could spark a liquidation squeeze, forcing short sellers to close positions and driving prices to $95,000, where the next major liquidity cluster lies.

On the upside, ask orders are building up around $102,500, with the next big cluster between $103,000 and $105,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, selling by long-term Bitcoin holders, capitulation by short-term holders, and a daily candlestick close below the $100,000 psychological level could push BTC’s price down to as low as $72,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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