Bitcoin bears give three reasons why the bull market is over

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s bearish MACD cross and engulfing candle on the three-week chart signal a cycle top. 

• Market analysts suggest that 558 days post-2024 halving indicate the Bitcoin bull cycle’s top is imminent.

• Other analysts say BTC price still has room to run, with $180,000 still in the cards.

Bitcoin (BTC) price traded 3% lower on Thursday and 13% below its $126,000 all-time high reached on Oct. 6, with some traders suggesting that this level may have marked the cycle top for BTC. 

Bitcoin technicals suggest “top is in“

Bitcoin’s price action appears to have confirmed a “bearish MACD crossover,” according to one crypto analyst, who suggests this could signal the end of the BTC bull run based on historical patterns. 

Related: Fed signals ’end of QT’: What does it mean for Bitcoin price?

There is a “pending bearish MACD crossover on Bitcoin's 3-week chart,” analyst Jesse Olson said in an X post on Wednesday, adding: 

“The histogram also shows longer-term bearish divergence.”

The crossover was confirmed once the moving average convergence indicator (MACD) (blue wave)— a technical indicator used by traders to identify trend changes and momentum shifts — moved below the signal line (orange wave), as shown in the chart below. 

Note that the last two times MACD sent this bearish signal were at the height of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, marking the top for Bitcoin.

BTC/USD three-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The same three-week chart shows the appearance of a “bearish engulfing candle” similar to the ones seen at the peak of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. 

These and “several other warnings suggest that the top is in,” Jesse Olson said in another post on Thursday. 

These include declining network activity, pointing to reduced onchain demand. Data from Nansen reveals that the number of daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network decreased by 30% in October, from 632,915 to 447,225. 

Bitcoin active addresses. Source: Nansen

A reducing number of daily active addresses signals waning network engagement and less user demand, often preceding price corrections or prolonged consolidation. 

Bitcoin’s imminent cycle peak

Pseudonymous trader and investor Mister Crypto backed the cycle top thesis with the assertion that Bitcoin has reached a point where it “historically peaks out,” based on its four-year halving cycle.

Looking back at past Bitcoin halving cycles in 2012 and 2016, there’s indeed a similar trend. The price gradually builds momentum, typically reaching its peak between 518 and 580 days after the halving event, as illustrated in the chart below. 

It has been 558 days since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, which places the BTC market within +40 days of the historical 518-580 day peak window. 

“We are right around the time where Bitcoin historically peaks out,” Mister Crypto said in an X post, asking:

“Will this time be different?”

Bitcoin: Days since last halving. Source: Mister Crypto

Fellow analyst CryptoBird said Bitcoin may only have a few days of price expansion left in the cycle, especially if it follows historical patterns based on past halvings. 

In his latest Bitcoin analysis, CryptoBird said Bitcoin is “consolidating before an explosion and the top window is open.”

— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) October 29, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, some analysts, such as BitMEX's Arthur Hayes, say that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead, arguing that prices are currently driven by monetary policy and liquidity, rather than halvings. 

Others see a diminishing halving impact, arguing that a positive interest rate cycle, institutional adoption through ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies and maturation as a mainstream asset, which could lead to more upside in 2026 for Bitcoin. 

Is Bitcoin’s upside really over?

Apart from those who claim that the Bitcoin four-year cycle no longer determines the duration of the bull run, others believe that BTC still has more room to run based on technical indicators.

Bitcoin has “formed a higher low and the range remains intact,” said analyst Jelle, referring to BTC’s price action in the daily time frame.

“Reclaim the $116K region, and the fun resumes.”

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Jelle

Fellow analyst Mags said Bitcoin is trading within a “bullish megaphone pattern” that has historically led to an upside breakout. 

“A massive breakout is loading.”— Mags (@thescalpingpro) October 30, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple showed that BTC remains closer to “oversold” at current levels, suggesting that the $180,000 target is still in play.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.