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3 months ago
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Whenever I talk about China’s astonishing rise in solar and renewables, someone inevitably brings up their massive coal pipeline. Fair enough. China’s coal buildout headlines are hard to ignore. But when I point out that in 2024, 85% of new coal project proposals were rejected, and explain that many “new” coal plants are backup peakers with short operational lifespans, I usually get blank stares.
So I wrote this blog. Because there’s more to the story—and it’s time we told it properly.
For years, critics have pointed to China’s continued construction of coal-fired power plants as a contradiction to its climate goals. How can the world’s largest emitter claim to lead the energy transition while still building new fossil fuel infrastructure? The answer lies in understanding China’s unique strategy: it isn’t building coal to burn for 40 years. It’s building coal as a temporary insurance policy — and once renewables can fully meet demand, China will have no hesitation in shutting coal down.
The Bigger Picture: Manufacturing Dominance
China’s renewable energy buildout isn’t just about reducing emissions. It’s industrial strategy. By powering its economy with the world’s cheapest solar, wind, and hydro, China is securing a massive competitive edge in electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries, and green manufacturing.
The government knows that abundant, low-cost electricity is the key to industrial supremacy in the 21st century. Every gigawatt of clean power added is a step toward making China the global hub of green manufacturing.
As detailed in the excellent overview from China Briefing, China’s 2024–2025 renewable policy shift emphasizes consumption and integration — not just capacity growth. That nuance is vital: the real target is to electrify entire supply chains and lock in global manufacturing leadership.
So Why Build Coal at All?
Coal additions in 2023–2025 are not about long-term reliance. They are about short-term grid stability:
- To prevent blackouts as renewables rapidly ramp up.
- To provide backup power during weather-related dips in solar or hydro.
- To buy time for grid upgrades and storage buildout.
Most new coal plants are low-utilization, peaker-style units. They’re not designed to run 24/7. Many have been approved with conditional permits and planned decommissioning timelines already factored in.
Still, some skeptics argue that China may struggle to retire these plants if renewable integration proves more complex than forecast. But this overlooks China’s historical track record of fast-paced grid modernization and deployment of high-voltage transmission corridors, as well as its growing fleet of utility-scale storage and demand-response technologies.
For example, Guangdong Province announced in 2024 that over 50% of newly approved coal capacity will be subject to flexible operation clauses, requiring plants to be phased down or retired once renewables and storage achieve target penetration thresholds. This isn’t speculative—it’s written into planning law.
The Rise of Batteries and Storage Innovation
Battery storage in China is following an exponential trajectory. In just three years, capacity jumped from under 10 GW to over 70 GW. With vertical supply chains, manufacturing scale, and strong policy support, growth could double or triple annually—reaching 1 TW by 2030 is no longer implausible.
Mainstream analysts often underestimate the second half of the S-curve—where scale goes vertical. China already met its 2030 wind and solar goals six years early. If storage becomes the next industrial pillar (and signs say it will), China will lead there too.
Disruption doesn’t wait for consensus. It rewards those who build fast and scale with intent. Right now, no one is doing that better than China.
In 2024, China significantly expanded its battery energy storage capacity. According to the National Energy Administration (NEA), cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage (excluding pumped hydro) reached 73.76 GW/168 GWh by year-end, with 42.37 GW/101.13 GWh added during the year—a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 130%. The China Electricity Council (CEC) reported a slightly lower cumulative figure of 62 GW/141 GWh, with 37 GW/91 GWh added in 2024. The discrepancy likely stems from differing definitions or reporting boundaries, but the NEA’s figures are more widely cited.
For 2025, projections remain bullish. The CEC forecasts cumulative capacity will exceed 100 GW, driven by large, centralized systems and robust policy support. The Energy Storage Industry Research White Paper 2025 projects cumulative capacity to surpass 100 GW by year-end. Even conservative estimates from the China Energy Storage Alliance (CNESA) predict 30.1–41.2 GW of new installations, implying a cumulative range of 92.1–103.2 GW, depending on the 2024 baseline.
Looking to 2026, official targets remain conservative. The State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) anticipates an additional 180 GW of storage from 2026–2030, averaging 36 GW/year. Based on this policy-driven trajectory, China could reach 130–140 GW of installed storage capacity by the end of 2026. However, this reflects a linear forecast. If recent exponential growth continues—like the leap from under 10 GW in 2020 to over 70 GW in 2024—true capacity could far outpace SGCC’s estimate. History shows that China’s disruption curves often outrun its policy targets.
This rapid expansion enables the integration of variable renewables, flattens load curves, and reduces reliance on fossil-based peaker plants. Most critically, it accelerates coal’s exit from the energy mix.
China’s lithium mining and refining capacity is scaling up, both domestically and through strategic overseas partnerships, particularly in Africa and South America. This ensures a stable supply for China’s battery manufacturing base, which produces over 75% of the world’s lithium-ion cells. Meanwhile, sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a cost-effective complement for long-duration storage and low-speed electric vehicles, offering resilience where lithium supply is constrained or high cycle life isn’t required.
Battery recycling is also ramping up. By 2025, China expects to operate over 40 major recycling facilities, reclaiming lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite to reduce material bottlenecks and environmental impact.
This forms a robust, closed-loop storage ecosystem—one that eliminates excuses for clinging to coal.
In addition to lithium and sodium-ion batteries, China is also exploring alternative storage technologies to help meet the massive and growing demand for grid stability. This includes vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), liquid metal batteries, and other long-duration and high-cycle storage systems better suited for industrial-scale energy shifting. While these technologies are not yet deployed at lithium-ion scale, they offer complementary strengths—such as longer life spans, deeper discharge capability, and thermal stability—that can support the transition to 100% renewables.
The Endgame Is Already in Motion
China’s Solar Build Is in a League of Its Own
In the 12 months to June 2025, China added a staggering 464 GW of new solar capacity—+62% YoY.
That 178 GW YoY increase alone is 3.5× the entire U.S. solar build in the same period (~50 GW).
This isn’t a narrowing gap. It’s an exponential divergence.
China Is Investing Where It Matters—And Others Aren’t
With $290.4 billion invested in renewables in 2024, China outspent:
- The entire EU27 + UK ($114.2B)
- The U.S. ($96.7B)
- And every other region combined.
This isn’t climate virtue signaling. It’s economic strategy. While others debate, China builds.
China’s Electricity Generation Has Gone Ballistic
From 2010 to 2024, China more than doubled its electricity output, surpassing 10,000 TWh annually. Much of this growth is now solar-led—powering EVs, semiconductors, AI, and robotics.
100 Solar Panels per Second—This Is an Energy Conquest
In 2025, China is installing 100 solar panels per second. That’s ~20x faster than the U.S., and ~17x faster than the EU.
Each panel provides near-zero cost electricity for 50+ years.
🔗 China installs 100 panels a second – RenewEconomy
LFP batteries + solar = coal’s economic death sentence. ⚡☀️🇨🇳 #SolarRevolution
A Real-World Coal Exit Example
In 2024, the Hohhot North Thermal Power Plant in Inner Mongolia was mothballed following sustained underutilization and price pressures from local solar and wind. Its load factor dropped below 18%, making it economically unviable. Similar early retirements are now being modeled in Hebei, Shandong, and coastal industrial zones.
Bottom Line: Coal Can’t Survive the 2030s
With solar + storage scaling exponentially, coal doesn’t stand a chance. By 2030, renewables will outcompete coal on price, scale, and flexibility. This is no longer a “transition”—it’s a phase change.
Here’s why China will shut these plants sooner than most people think:
- Overcapacity in renewables: China met its 2030 wind and solar installation targets six years early, in 2024.
- Declining coal utilization: Average coal plant utilization fell below 50% in 2024. That trend is accelerating.
- Clean energy is cheaper: With solar LCOE as low as $20/MWh, coal is increasingly uncompetitive.
- Provincial planning: Several provinces have already modeled early coal retirements as renewable reliability improves.
China’s state-owned utilities don’t view coal as sacred. They are economically pragmatic. Once renewables + storage + HVDC interconnectors can fully meet demand — coal becomes financially irrelevant.
Stranded Assets? Not a Problem
Western analysts worry about “stranded assets.” But for China, that’s just the cost of securing the energy transition. If a coal plant only runs for 10 years instead of 40, but helps smooth the path to 100% clean power — it’s a worthwhile investment.
China doesn’t build infrastructure with sentiment. It builds to serve a strategic purpose. When that purpose is fulfilled, it moves on.
A Global Contrast
While China is building coal as a transitional buffer, other major economies still treat coal as a long-term staple. India, for example, has no formal retirement plan for most of its operating coal fleet. In the United States, despite record renewable growth, political inertia and aging grid infrastructure continue to delay decisive fossil phaseouts.
By comparison, China’s readiness to walk away from new coal within a decade shows unmatched energy pragmatism.
Visual Snapshot: China’s Energy Shift (2020–2025)
*Estimates based on NEA and IEA data.
Conclusion: Coal Is a Bridge, Not the Destination
China is playing a long game. It built coal to stabilize the grid during the most aggressive renewable buildout in human history. But once renewables reach scale — and that moment is fast approaching — those coal plants will be shut down, sidelined, or mothballed.
This is energy pragmatism, not contradiction. The world should take note.
Further Reading
- 🔆 China’s 2024 Solar Surge — An in-depth look at how record-breaking solar deployment is setting the pace for the global transition.
- 🚀 When Restraints Ignite Progress — Why limitations in Western policy are accelerating China’s innovation curve.
- 🏭 China’s Clean Energy Revolution and America’s Carbon Legacy — A broader view of how China is redefining energy, industry, and international influence.
- 🔥 Ashes of Empire: Coal’s Final Flame in a Changing World — A sweeping look at coal’s rise, dominance, and inevitable decline in the face of China’s energy revolution.
Want more insights like this? Visit evcurvefuturist.com and join the conversation shaping the future of clean energy and electrification.
