China LEOsats in holding pattern due to lack of reusable rockets

(Source: Jose Luis Stephens / Alamy Stock Photo)

China's ambitious low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite schemes are temporarily grounded because of a lack of advanced launch vehicles.

New Shanghai-based satellite operator Yuanxin has had to abandon multiple tenders for launch services this year because of a lack of cost-effective, reusable rockets.

Yuanxin has so far lifted 90 satellites into orbit for its Qianfan constellation, but not one since March, when it sent up a batch of 18 on a Long March 8 rocket.

Qianfan is expected to total 15,000 satellites. Starnet, the national government-backed project, is aiming for 13,000 but so far has launched just 46.

Yuanxin has made repeated efforts to procure reusable liquid launch vehicles, but each tender received just one bid, according to the Economic Observer. Under China's procurement law, tenders require at least three bidders.

In its latest tender, for a rocket that can carry an 18-satellite payload, it tried to skirt the problem by offering an extended timeline: Launch companies have until the end of the year to qualify.

This may seem merely a bureaucratic problem, but it underlines the technical shortcomings in the industry.

Yet to launch

The launch sector was opened to private companies in 2014, but it still lacks a high-capacity liquid fuel rocket that can match SpaceX's Falcon 9 in launch frequency or payload.

In the end Yuanxin selected three bids – from Landspace, Tianbing Technology and China Aerospace Science and Technology. But as of now none of them has completed a single flight with a reusable liquid fuel rocket. 

The Falcon 9 vehicle, which can carry up to 60 satellites, or around 15 tonnes, has so far deposited more than 8,000 Starlink satellites into orbit. China's most powerful private rocket, the Orienspace Gravity-1, has a capacity of 4.2 tons.

One China-based analyst estimated that SpaceX's launch cost was around 21,000 yuan (US$2,950) per kilogram, although others have estimated the cost to be as high as RMB31,000 ($4,300). But these numbers are well below the payload cost on a Chinese commercial rocket, which ranges from RMB60,000 ($8,400) to RMB150,000 ($21,100) per kilogram.

Rockets aren't the only problem, however. 

Both the Qianfan and Starnet constellations are hampered by the bent-pipe network topology in which all signals are transmitted to or from a ground station.

Elon Musk's Starlink's network still uses some bent-pipe, but since 2022 it has been progressively introducing laser-based inter-satellite links, creating a mesh network that provides more flexibility and lower latency and cost.

Deng Zhongliang, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, said the lack of inter-satellite links and the ability to integrate with telemetry and computing were the biggest weaknesses in the China LEOsat program.

He told China Industry News terrestrial-based infrastructure could not support autonomous satellite networking, while high-speed in-orbit bandwidth was essential not just for satellite Internet but for future 6G services.