China won the electric car race. Up next: freight trucks

China flooded the world with electric cars. Its next target is freight trucks.

BYDiBYDBYD Auto is a Chinese carmaker that became the world’s leading EV manufacturer in 2023, competing with Tesla for market share and global attention.READ MORE, the Chinese automaker that overtook Tesla in sales of electric cars last year, now ships electric freight trucks to Italy, Poland, Spain, and Mexico — alongside eight other Chinese companies that dominate the global market. Chinese automakers accounted for 80% of the world’s 90,000 electric cargo-truck sales last year, according to the International Energy Agency. 

Globally, CO2 emissions from heavy-duty vehicles have risen by almost 3% every year between 2000 and 2018. Trucks accounted for 80% of the increase. Their outsize impact on the environment has made the electrification of trucks crucial for climate goals. Chinese companies are capitalizing on their massive home-market scale to export commercial-truck solutions, building factories from Mexico to Europe.

China’s electric truck dominance stems from a 15-year government campaign that treats commercial vehicles as a national priority and mandates manufacturers produce EVs as a percentage of total output. Governments in Western countries have merely offered tax credits to individual buyers. Chinese fleet operators now report their electric freight trucks cost 10% to 26% less to operate than diesel models, according to Beijing-based market intelligence provider Commercial Vehicle World. CATL, the world’s biggest electric battery maker, claims its batteries cut transport costs by 35% per ton-kilometer.

The results have emboldened Chinese manufacturers to set aggressive targets. Robert Zeng, CATL’s billionaire founder, expects half of China’s commercial truck market will be electric by 2028. Sany Group, China’s top-selling heavy electric-truck maker, predicts 70% to 80% penetration.

“The key lesson is that electrification succeeds when supported by aligned policy, ecosystem investment, and end-market adoption incentives,” Russo said. “However, replicating China’s speed will be difficult. Few other countries combine China’s industrial scale, vertically integrated supply chain, and top-down policy coordination.”

If range anxiety is a big concern stalling the growth of electric cars, charging presents a significant hurdle for trucks.

A typical large freight truck needs about one megawatt-hour of battery capacity, 10 times what a Tesla Model 3 requires, according to Gill Pratt, Toyota’s scientific adviser.

In Europe, truckers get mandatory 45-minute breaks every 4.5 hours, creating natural charging windows. But commercial drivers in Brazil, India, and other developing markets routinely drive 10 to 18 hours straight, making plug-in charging impractical.

China has resolved the issue by using battery-swapping technology in almost 40% of its electric heavy-duty trucks.

“Without reliable and strategically placed charging networks along freight corridors, adoption will face unnecessary roadblocks,” Amit Bhatt, India managing director at the International Council on Clean Transportation, said in a statement in August. “If we get the infrastructure right today, we can ensure a smoother, faster, and more cost-effective shift to clean freight tomorrow.”

Commercial trucking is dominated by small operators with razor-thin margins. These operations lack capital for vehicles that cost twice as much as diesel equivalents, even if operating costs eventually provide savings. “Financing is the key bottleneck in India, whereas in China, the government invested significant capital to advance the sector,” Ravi Gadepalli, founder of mobility advisory firm Transit Intelligence, told Rest of World. “Rather than trying to recreate what China did, it is important for India and other cost-sensitive markets to develop models that work for their context.”

Volvo, the leading Western manufacturer, has delivered just 5,000 electric trucks across 50 countries. South Africa illustrates why its progress has remained slow. After two years in the market, Volvo sold only six electric trucks — too few to justify local assembly. Yet importing them would have pushed prices out of reach in a country without purchase subsidies.

In China, BYD alone has facilities producing electric cargo trucks for export across the country. The company has plans for international assembly plants following its passenger car strategy. Beiqi Foton, another major Chinese player, already ships freight trucks to the European Union’s markets despite potential tariffs. In June, Chinese electric truck maker Windrose announced plans to set up a factory in Georgia, U.S.

“It is very likely that the Chinese e-truck manufacturers will disrupt the global freight truck market,” Gadepalli said. “We have already seen this with cars and buses and the same is likely to continue.”

The global heavy-duty electric freight truck market will reach only $5 billion by 2030, a tiny fraction of the $6 trillion EV market, according to San Francisco-based market research firm Grand View Research. Lighter commercial vehicles for urban delivery will comprise most sales — not the long-haul trucks that generate the most emissions. The projections may be underestimating the extent of China’s fledgling global ambition. China’s EV market has repeatedly moved faster than expected, with BYD dethroning Tesla, and Chinese EVs capturing more than 60% of global electric car sales.

“Chinese companies will adapt their market entry strategies — supplying components where regulations require local manufacturing, establishing direct sales elsewhere,” Gadepalli said. “The future might involve Chinese technology adapted to local conditions rather than wholesale adoption of the Chinese model.”