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Circle is positioned to benefit from surging stablecoin adoption and supportive regulation, but the company’s valuation already reflects much of the upside.
Sep 30, 2025, 2:21 p.m.
U.S. bank Citizens began coverage of Circle Internet (CRCL) with a market perform rating, noting that while the company is poised to capitalize on stablecoin growth, its valuation already captures much of the upside.
Circle, issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, the dollar-pegged USDC, and euro-pegged EURC, has built a broad infrastructure suite, including a payments network, cross-chain protocol and programmable wallets. It is working on Arc, a planned layer-1 blockchain, that Citizens sees as central to programmable money in payments, trading and tokenization.
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to a real-world asset such as a currency or gold. They are used to transfer money and for cross border payments. Tether's USDT, the biggest, has a market cap of about $175 billion.
Stablecoins are at an inflection point, analysts led by Devin Ryan wrote, and the industry market cap could rise from about $300 billion today to $3 trillion by 2030 as regulatory clarity from the U.S. GENIUS Act, Europe’s MiCA and other regimes fuels adoption.
With USDC circulation doubling year-over-year to roughly $74 billion, fully backed by cash and treasuries, the bank's analysts see Circle’s compliance-first approach as a key competitive moat.
The company is also well capitalized, with more than $1 billion in cash after its June IPO and follow-on offering, giving it room to invest and pursue acquisitions. But at $133 per share, Circle trades at premium multiples of 39x and 23x EV/2026E and 2027E Ebitda, which Citizens says reflects leadership but limits upside unless adoption or monetization accelerate.
Key factors to watch include USDC growth, margins, fee revenue ramp and sensitivity to yields. Citizens points to upcoming catalysts such as new payment corridors, enterprise partnerships, Arc’s testnet and MiCA implementation, while noting risks from yield compression, Coinbase distribution, competition and regulation remain manageable.
Circle rose higher in early trading to around $134.40.
Read more: Stablecoin Market Surges on U.S. Regulation, With Circle's USDC Gaining Ground: JPMorgan
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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