Experts Debate Whether Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Still Holds in 2025

For years, Bitcoin’s price has been tied to a four-year cycle driven by halving events that reduce the supply of new coins. This cycle has shaped expectations, often resulting in periods of growth followed by downturns. However, as the market matures, experts are now debating whether this four-year cycle remains relevant in 2025 or if it has lost its significance.

Understanding the Traditional Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin halving happens roughly every four years. When it does, miners earn half as many bitcoins as before, so fewer new bitcoins are made. After these events, prices usually rise a lot about a year later, as we saw in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This four-year timing has become important for how prices change and how investors expect Bitcoin to behave.

At its core, halving limits supply. If demand doesn’t change or grows, a lower supply often pushes prices higher. Traders and analysts see halving as a key part of Bitcoin’s value since it reduces how much Bitcoin is available. Because the timing is known, investors can prepare their moves.

That said, this model was formed when the Bitcoin market was less developed and mostly influenced by individual miners and retail traders. As institutional players become more prominent and global economic factors shift, it is worth considering if the halving still holds the same power in shaping Bitcoin’s price.

Why Some Experts Say the Four-Year Cycle Is Over?

Leading experts in the crypto field are increasingly suggesting that the era of the four-year Bitcoin cycle might be coming to a close. Jason Williams, an author and investor, recently shared on X that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold close to one million BTC. He argues that this level of concentration reduces the “trading float” available and disrupts the traditional supply-demand dynamics linked to halvings.

Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, shared a similar view in a CNBC article. He said that although the cycle is “not officially over” until positive returns appear in 2026, he personally believes the four-year rhythm no longer holds the same sway. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, also highlighted that with 95% of Bitcoin already mined, halvings no longer meaningfully affect the supply. Instead, he points to demand driven by retail investors, exchange-traded products, and treasury companies buying from long-term holders.

Martin Burgherr from Sygnum Bank agrees with this view, pointing out that macroeconomic factors, institutional investment, and regulatory shifts are now just as influential as halving events when it comes to Bitcoin’s market behavior. Although halvings continue to be important markers, they no longer dominate the market’s direction.

Why Some Believe the Cycle Remains Intact?

Despite these arguments, some industry insiders maintain that the four-year cycle continues to matter. Crypto analyst “CRYPTO₿IRB” disputed the claim that the cycle no longer applies, suggesting that the presence of ETFs and their link to traditional finance actually reinforce these patterns. He noted that traditional markets often follow four-year presidential cycles, which align with Bitcoin’s halving schedule, strengthening the connection between crypto and mainstream financial markets.

Furthermore, halvings are an integral feature of Bitcoin’s code; they happen automatically and cannot be stopped or ignored. This built-in supply adjustment continues to affect long-term market behavior. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, agreed, warning that prolonged bear markets are possible and that the involvement of institutional players does not erase Bitcoin’s natural cycles.

This contrast reveals a broader uncertainty: despite growing market complexity, historical trends still resonate with many participants. The discussion underlines that Bitcoin’s path is far from predictable and that cycles, although changing, remain a fundamental aspect of the narrative.

What the Cycle Means Now?

With the evolution of the crypto market, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle linked to halving events is being questioned. New factors like institutional investors, economic changes, and regulations now have a stronger impact, making the old supply and demand model less certain.

Still, the four-year cycle plays an important role in Bitcoin’s framework, and many investors depend on it. Whether it remains the main benchmark or simply one factor among many, it reflects the challenge of anticipating Bitcoin’s future.