Folks aren't buying the PCs that US vendors stockpiled to dodge tariffs

World War Fee Total PC shipments in the US will increase by just 2 percent this year, thanks to Trump's tariffs and little appetite from consumers for spending on "big-ticket" items, despite the looming end of Windows 10 support.

Deliveries reaching US shores surged 15 percent in the first calendar quarter of 2025, as the channel stockpiled inventory in response to the Trump administration's threatened hike in tariffs on imports, especially on goods coming from China, where most PCs are made.

This led to significant inventory buildup in America that will now need to be cleared, according to market watcher Canalys. However consumers are not biting because of several factors, including that tariffs have pushed up prices in a number of key spending categories already, meaning households are likely focusing on essentials and avoiding forking out on discretionary items.

"Consumers' appetite for big-ticket spending on PCs faces a number of downside risks. Although PCs currently remain exempt, broader tariffs impacting key spending categories have already resulted in inflationary pressure, with the Federal Reserve pausing its planned interest rate cuts in anticipation of further price rises in the remainder of the year," said research director Ishan Dutt.

The upshot is that with retail inventory already well stocked, sales from distributors into those channels during the second half of the year is likely to be constrained.

Canalys says there is another factor, which is that consumers don't really care much about the looming end of support for Windows 10, and aren't in any hurry to upgrade before the October 14, 2025 cut-off.

"Despite the sense of urgency driven by the Windows 10 end of service date, consumer demand in the US has remained largely unaffected," said research manager Kieren Jessop.

"This highlights a key reality: many PC users are indifferent to the Windows 10 end of support until it becomes a significant pain point. Consumer PC purchases tend to be largely driven by factors like poor battery life, slow performance or hardware failures," he added.

Many PC users are indifferent to the Windows 10 end of support until it becomes a significant pain point ...

And this situation is likely not helped by the vendors betting big on so-called AI PCs selling like hot cakes, despite the fact that there is no killer app for these devices, they carry a premium price tag, and the industry can't even agree on a standard hardware specification.

"Overwhelming specifications and unclear messaging also exacerbate the complexity of the PC buying journey," Jessop said. "For vendors and channel partners, this underscores the need to simplify the buyer experience through clear, needs-based messaging and streamlined product portfolios. The channel must proactively guide consumers through a coherent and intuitive purchasing process, helping them easily identify devices tailored to their needs."

Things are better in the commercial sector, where businesses are continuing to upgrade their fleets as the Windows 10 support deadline nears.

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"The pace of transition to Windows 11 among US businesses has been a positive sign for the industry," said Dutt. "Commercial demand, particularly from SMBs, is set to accelerate in the second half of 2025 as Microsoft ramps up its awareness drive on the importance of timely refresh."

Growth in sales here will help outweigh the stagnation in consumer spending, Canalys expects. Commercial PC shipments are anticipated to grow 8 percent, it believes, in stark contrast to the 4 percent decline estimated in consumer shipments.

Next year is set to be different, or so the industry must be hoping, with the consumer sector pegged for 6.5 percent growth, while business PC sales are slated to expand by another 4 percent. Whether this will play out is partly dependent on if the Trump administration continues to play games with tariffs. ®