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2 months ago
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Kenneth Rogoff reflects that he underestimated BTC's role in the underground economy, which has put a floor under the cryptocurrency's price.
Aug 21, 2025, 8:21 a.m.
In 2018, Kenneth S Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, predicted bitcoin
was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000 in a decade.
In reality, bitcoin's price rose above $100,000 this year, a 10-fold increase from March 2018's sub-$10,000 level when Rogoff predicted the crash.
On Tuesday, with bitcoin hovering around $113,000, Rogoff reflected on how he had missed the mark, saying he had been "far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses regarding sensible cryptocurrency regulation."
In a post on X, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff expressed said he'd expected policymakers to adopt a firm stance to curb the use of cryptocurrencies in tax evasion and illegal activities. He was, indirectly, criticizing the regulatory environment as being less than prudent and allowing cryptocurrencies like BTC to flourish in ways he did not anticipate.
Rogoff underestimated how bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the 20 trillion-dollar global underground economy.
"This demand puts a floor on its price, as I discuss at length in my new book Our Dollar, Your Problem," Rogoff said.
He also flagged a "blatant conflict of interest," with regulators "holding hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence."
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
AI Boost
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