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1 day ago
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As of October 29, 2025 — 10th Man Analysis
No smoking gun. 1.1M BTC ($125B+) dormant since 2011.
10th Man Mandate: Challenge consensus (cypherpunk solo/small group) with all viable actors: individuals, states, non-state, wildcards.
- Likelihood: Estimated % chance this is Satoshi
- VH (>30%), H (15–30%), M (5–15%), L (1–5%), VL (<1%)
- Confidence: Strength of evidence
- H (Direct: code, tx, stylometry), M (Circumstantial), L (Speculative)
- Score: Avg (H=3, M=2, L=1) → Ranked
- Sources: GitHub-style citations [#], full links at bottom.
| 1 | Hal Finney | Individual | VH | H | 3.0 | 1st BTC tx recipient1; PGP style match2; ALS death 2014; family weak denial | Died 2014; wife denied | Most parsimonious solo dev — code fingerprints dominant |
| 2 | Cypherpunk Collective (Finney + Szabo + Back + Dai) |
Non-State | H | H | 3.0 | Whitepaper cites all3; forum overlap; "Satoshi" = group alias4 | No leaks in 16 yrs | Consensus killer: BTC = manifesto culmination, not solo genius |
| 3 | Nick Szabo | Individual | H | M | 2.5 | Bit Gold = BTC blueprint5; blog timestamps6; stylometry ~95%7 | Denies; no code proof | Missing link — invented smart contracts pre-BTC |
| 4 | Paul Le Roux | Individual (Criminal) | M | M | 2.0 | Encryption/darknet empire8; arrested 2012 = Satoshi vanish9; ~$64B wallet theory | In US prison; no direct BTC link | Dark horse: Faked death? Dormancy = can't access |
| 5 | Len Sassaman | Individual | M | M | 2.0 | Mixnets → privacy tech10; died 2011 (suicide note = last Satoshi post?)11; HBO tease | No code/style match | Wife’s blockchain memorial = hint? |
| 6 | Adam Back | Individual | M | L | 1.5 | Hashcash → PoW12; cited in whitepaper | Denies vehemently | Bridge to Blockstream — too public? |
| 7 | NSA (Solo/Team) | State | M | L | 1.5 | Invented SHA-25613; 1996 e-cash paper14; infinite resources | BTC undermines USD — suicide pill? | 10th Man: Honeypot? Dormant coins = opsec |
| 8 | CIA | State | L | L | 1.0 | "Satoshi" = "central intelligence"15; black budget R&D | Same motive conflict | Sanctions bypass op? |
| 9 | Craig Wright | Individual | VL | H (fraud) | 2.0 | Self-claims; court docs | UK Court 2024: Proven liar/perjurer16 | Dead theory |
| 10 | Jack Dorsey | Individual | VL | L | 0.5 | BTC maxi; freedom tech | Too young/no skills 2008 | Meme tier |
| 11+ | Wildcards (AI / Time Traveler / Elon / Alien) |
Non-State | VL | L | 0.5 | CZ joked AI17; dormancy = future op | Occam’s razor | Ultimate 10th: Simulation test? |
- ~90% prob: Cypherpunk origin (anti-state manifesto)
- Individuals > States (motive: liberation vs control)
- State risk: Low but non-zero — NSA could run forever op
- Non-state edge: Collectives/criminals avoid single-point failure
- 2025 status: HBO doc flop (Peter Todd denied); no wallet moves
- Prediction: Reveal impossible by design. If move → Le Roux / Finney heir
Hal Finney (solo or lead) → ~40% most likely
Bet on cypherpunk roots. HODL the mystery — it’s BTC’s superpower. 🚀
Want deeper?
→ Stylometry scripts, wallet clustering, timestamp heatmaps
