Is the job market for software developers collapsing?

Concerns persist that artificial intelligence (AI) could render software developers obsolete, particularly with tools like GitHub Copilot and Cursor streamlining certain programming tasks. While these tools undoubtedly boost efficiency—Microsoft’s CEO has estimated that AI could write 30% of all code—the precise impact on productivity remains challenging to quantify. Moreover, productivity gains do not automatically lead to unemployment. In fact, increased efficiency could drive greater demand for software, as lower development costs make projects more accessible, enabling customers to request more complex or numerous applications.

For example, AI-assisted tools allow developers to create simple web applications faster than ever, reducing time spent on repetitive tasks like boilerplate code or debugging. But how do we assess the broader implications for the software development workforce? To understand the interplay between AI, productivity, and employment, we can turn to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

According to the BLS, employment for software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers is projected to grow by 17% from 2023 to 2033, significantly outpacing the average for all occupations (4%).

We can look at data from the last three years: