M8.2 solar flare, Strong G4 geomagnetic storm watch

M8.2 solar flare, Strong G4 geomagnetic storm watch

Saturday, 31 May 2025 18:11 UTC

Wow! Major solar fireworks today. Charge your camera batteries and put on your finest jacket for tomorrow night as strong (G3) or perhaps even severe (G4) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible tomorrow evening (1 June) into 2 June. The center of attention today was sunspot region 4100 which produced a gorgeous long duration M8.2 solar flare today (R2-moderate) peaking at 00:05 UTC. This region is close to the center of the Earth-facing solar disk and launched a major asymmetrical full halo (as seen by SOHO/LASCO) coronal mass ejection in space with a pretty much guaranteed earth-directed component.

Sunspot region 4100 produced a gorgeous long duration M8.2 solar flare today peaking at 00:05 UTC. This region is close to the center of the Earth-facing solar disk and the eruption is associated with a Type II radio emission. This along with the most recent coronagraph imagery… pic.twitter.com/kYZWAhFI3f

— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) May 31, 2025

The M8.2 solar flare launched this spectaculair coronal mass ejection as seen by SOHO/LASCO.

As you can see the coronal mass ejection is very impressive and while it isn't a picture perfect symmetrical full halo (bulk heading slightly to the north), there is no doubt that this is a great eruption which will impact our planet. Below we have two model runs and they are in agreement that the coronal mass ejection is fast and could arrive tomorrow afternoon likely anywhere between 12 UTC and 18 UTC. This would be perfect for Europe but even north America, Australia and New Zealand should be on alert as enhanced geomagnetic (storm) conditions will likely persist for 24 hours or more after the plasma cloud impacts our planet. Middle latitude locations like England, Germany and central US states like Colorado, Kentucky, Illinois and Missouri) should be on high alert tomorrow as geomagnetic storm conditions between the strong G3 and severe G4 (Kp8) level are expected which could make aurora visible from such locations. Happy hunting and follow the data live on this website!

Solar wind model run showing the anticipated M8 CME arrival.

WSA-ENLIL model run showing the forecasted impact time and solar wind speed at Earth of the M8 CME.