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2 weeks ago
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Officials in Downing Street have blocked publication of a report warning that the collapse of tropical rainforests could push up food prices in British supermarkets.
The government’s “global ecosystem assessment” report, on the ramifications for Britain if tropical and boreal forests, coral reefs and mangroves are degraded and destroyed, was due to be published on Thursday.
The review on the threats faced by international ecosystems due to a changing climate and habitat loss has been in development for at least a year.
However, government insiders have told The Times that No 10 vetoed the publication of the report at the last minute over fears that it was too negative.
The Downing Street team are also understood to have been worried the document would beg too many questions about what the UK was doing to avert the severe impacts of ecosystems failing.
Chief among those questions would be how much Britain is willing to pay into a new fund to save tropical forests that the Brazilian government will be launching at the Cop30 climate change summit in the Amazon next month. Since coming to power, Labour has also failed to make any progress on a 2020 government plan to impose new rules on supermarkets to ensure they weed out beef, soy and other forest commodities linked to illegal deforestation in the tropics. The Times understands the report linked the collapse of the Amazon rainforest — an ecosystem which is crucial for generating the region’s rainfall and enabling a huge agricultural industry — to an increase in how much UK shoppers pay for food and other goods. The report also examined the risk that “resource competition” drives instability and conflicts around the world, which the UK could be dragged into. The consequences of ecosystems failing include increased movement of people around the world because they no longer have anywhere to earn a livelihood, according to the report. The protection of global ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest is presented in the report as an “insurance policy” to protect the interests of UK citizens. Laurie Laybourn, executive director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative think tank, urged the government to publish the report so British citizens knew the risks. “In a globalised world, what happens to nature abroad doesn’t stay abroad,” he said. “Recent events show this, like how extreme weather has smashed up crops around the world, driving up food prices in British supermarkets. “As climate change and nature loss get worse, ecosystems could even collapse. This would threaten our security, including food supply, in a way unseen outside wartime.” Erosion caused by cattle tracks near Barreirinhas, Maranhao, Brazil ALAMY A study last year found that almost half of the Amazon could be at risk of reaching a “tipping point” by the middle of the century due to water stress. The Amazon effectively creates its own rainfall, which is crucial for the ranchers and soy growers who have cleared large tracts of the forest, but the dry season has become much longer in recent decades as trees are cut down. Dr Mike Barrett, chief scientific adviser at WWF-UK, said: “The collapse of globally important ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest would have severe ramifications here in the UK. “The government must publish any assessment of these risks and be straight with the public on the scale of the environmental challenges we face.” Barrett noted that despite past commitments, the government had “stalled” on implementing legislation to remove illegal deforestation from domestic supply chains. “This delay means supermarket goods continue to drive illegal deforestation and undermines global efforts,” he said. “Urgent action is needed to close this gap and ensure our consumption doesn’t drive forest loss abroad.” The EU also recently delayed by a year the implementation of similar rules on forest commodities. The Brazilian government is hoping to establish a fund at Cop30 that pays countries such as Brazil and Indonesia for preserving their forests. Advocates think the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, first mooted at climate talks in Dubai two years ago, could eventually pay out $4 billion annually. Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is hoping the world will pay his government for preserving the rainforest THIAGO GOMES/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES The idea is to raise hundreds of billions of pounds from high-income countries such as the UK, plus philanthropists and private investors, to create a fund that pays those initial donors a return. Any surplus return would be paid to forest countries to protect their trees. It is unclear whether the government will pay into the fund, or if it will still publish the assessment on global ecosystems. A government spokesman said: “We don’t comment on speculation. This government is taking robust action to boost UK food security and turn the tide of nature’s decline¸ as well as prepare for the impacts of a changing climate and nature loss. “This includes treating biodiversity loss as a security risk, investing in nature protection and restoration at home and abroad, and delivering £11.6 billion in international climate finance by the end of 2025-26 as part of our Plan for Change.”
