PC memory costs to climb as fabs chase filthy lucre in servers and HBM

PC memory prices are set to rise as the major suppliers allocate manufacturing capacity to the more lucrative server DRAM and HBM instead amid reports of tightening supplies.

Memory prices are set for an increase in Q4 of 2025, according to market watcher TrendForce, which points the finger at the three top DRAM makers – Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology.

These suppliers are allocating advanced process capacity primarily to high-end server DRAM and HBM, which is constraining their capacity for PC, mobile, and consumer chips, it claims.

Overall, conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase 8 to 13 percent compared with the previous quarter, and when HBM is included, the increase could be as much as 13 to 18 percent, TrendForce warns.

Another factor is that PC shipments are projected to decline in Q4 2025, perhaps because many buyers will already have moved to upgrade their system before Microsoft brings the ax down on support for Windows 10 on October 14, as many old (and not-so-old) machines cannot run Windows 11.

In addition, the US PC industry is said to be suffering from excess inventory due to resellers stockpiling systems in anticipation of tariffs being imposed on imported products by the erratic Trump administration.

In response, many PC makers have cut back their memory orders. Combined with the shift in manufacturing capacity toward server parts, this means supply of both DDR4 and DDR5 will be constrained. As a result, PC DRAM prices are forecast to continue edging upward through the quarter, TrendForce said.

• Micron close to selling all the high-bandwidth memory it will make in 2026
• SK Hynix cranks up the HBM4 assembly line to prep for next-gen GPUs
• DRAM spot prices doubled last week
• SK hynix has probably already sold most of the HBM DRAM it will make next year

There is some hint of good news, in that the market watcher says DDR4 price increases are expected to slow during the quarter, thanks to companies scaling back on restocking their inventory.

It isn't just PC memory that is expected to become more dear. Supplies of LPDDR4X, used in mid-range and low-end smartphones, are shrinking as suppliers cut output. The problem is exacerbated by device makers upping their orders in an attempt to avoid supply disruptions, which is likely to cause prices to bump up more than 10 percent during Q4.

TrendForce also predicts the price of LPDDR5X, used in higher-end smartphones, to rise, even though the firm says no immediate shortages of this format are apparent, instead blaming "supply dynamics and pricing strategies."

Graphics memory will also be affected, with anticipation for Nvidia's RTX 6000 series driving price increases, particularly for GDDR7 as suppliers expect a supply shortage. Meanwhile, the older GDDR6, still widely used in previous-generation GPUs, also faces constrained supplies, pushing its prices up even faster than GDDR7.

This is all likely to change in another few months, of course, as demand shifts again in the cyclical memory market and the manufacturers increase or decrease output of particular memory types in response. ®