Saving vs. Spending $230B

H.R. 1 or the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is projected to increase the deficit by around $230 billion and increases the debt limit by $4 trillion. I wanted to explore an admittedly amateur analysis to do the opposite or save $230 billion with minimal impact to the US taxpayer.

1. Medicare Fraud & Reimbursement Reform – $40B

Medicare loses $50–60 billion per year in improper payments. This includes:

• Upcoding (billing for more expensive services),

• Phantom billing (services never delivered),

• Ghost patients (patients who don’t exist).

There are well documented cases especially with Medicare Advantage to increase the perceived risk and thus payouts for patients.

Fix:

• Transition from “pay and chase” to real-time fraud detection using modern AI tools, like banks and credit card companies already do.

• Launch and publicize a “fraud bounty” program to reward whistleblowers.

• Prosecute high-dollar offenders to increase deterrence.

• Implement biometric or digital credentialing to enroll and verify providers and patient identity during visits. Use predictive analytics to flag high-risk providers.

These reforms wouldn't burden legitimate providers or patients—they would simply bring Medicare into the 21st century.

2. Medicare Drug Price Negotiation & PBM Reform – $40B

The Inflation Reduction Act begins to allow Medicare to negotiate a small set of high-cost drugs, projected to save $98.5B over 10 years. But this is just scratching the surface.

Fix:

• Expand Medicare's negotiation authority to all drugs under Parts B and D.

• End PBM-controlled formularies for federally subsidized plans. PBMs use opaque rebate schemes that reward higher list prices and distort access to generics or biosimilars.

• Replace PBM formularies with independent, evidence-based formularies (like the VA uses).

• Implement Value-based pricing tying pricing to outcomes.

The result: lower drug prices, better access to effective meds, and billions in annual savings.

3. Close Cold War-Era Overseas Bases – $15B

The U.S. maintains hundreds of military bases abroad—including in Germany, Italy, and Japan—wealthy, stable allies capable of self-defense. Many of these bases date back to the Cold War and are no longer strategically essential.

Fix:

• Close or significantly downsize bases in non-conflict zones.
• Prioritize agile, rotational deployments over permanent, fixed installations.
• Shift more responsibility to host nations for their regional defense.

This maintains military readiness while cutting billions from unnecessary base operations and troop deployments.

4. End the Nuclear Triad – $20B

The U.S. maintains three nuclear delivery systems—land-based ICBMs, submarine-launched missiles, and air-dropped bombs. These systems are at end of life, maintaining this Cold War-era redundancy requires extremely expensive modernization and ongoing operational costs – not to mention increasing the risks of horrible accidents.

Fix:

• Phase out land-based ICBMs and nuclear bombers.
• Preserve the submarine-based deterrent (the most survivable leg).
• Reinvest savings into cybersecurity and advanced conventional weapons.

One ballistic sub is enough to essentially end the world and we have over a dozen.

5. Eliminate Corn Ethanol & Farm Subsidy Bloat – $24B

Corn ethanol mandates are a relic of the 1970s energy crisis. Today, they distort markets, harm the environment, and prop up outdated farming subsidies.

Fix:

• End ethanol blending mandates and subsidies.
• Repeal oil and gas tax breaks; implement modest carbon pricing.
• Shift to a market-neutral stance—let renewables compete on a level playing field.

This reform helps the environment, the budget, and long-term energy independence.

6. Scrap the SLS & Reform Artemis – $6B

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) is outdated and vastly more expensive than private alternatives like SpaceX's Starship.

Fix:

• Cancel the SLS program, which costs $2–4 billion per launch.
• Transition Artemis to commercial launch partners under fixed-price contracts.

NASA will be more successful and productive partnering with private players.

7. End the TSA – $5B

The TSA costs $9 billion annually but has repeatedly failed to demonstrate meaningful threat reduction or efficiency.

Fix:

• Transition to a risk-based, intelligence-led model like Israel’s.
• Outsource basic screening to private, regulated firms under federal oversight.

This maintains security while restoring dignity and efficiency to air travel.

8. Close Loopholes & Increase Tax Fairness – $50B

The tax code currently privileges capital over labor or generational wealth.

Fix:

• Equalize tax rates on capital gains and ordinary income for high earners.
• Eliminate the carried interest loophole.
• End stepped-up basis; tax unrealized gains at death.
• Restore a higher top marginal income tax rate (e.g., 39.6%+ over $1M).
• Implement a minimum tax on very high incomes (e.g., a robust AMT or billionaire tax).

These reforms increase fairness and end schemes like “buy, borrow, die”.

9. Acquisition Reform – $30B

Procurement often relies on bloated cost-plus contracts and “big bang” programs that deliver late and over budget.

Fix:

• Favor market commitments and fixed-price contracts, especially for stable, repeat purchases or critical items like 120MM mortar rounds.
• Discourage 'NextGen' or big-bang replacements in favor of incremental encapsulation, replacement, and deprecation.
• All federal systems should expose common programmatic interfaces and discourage other means of sharing data (Bezos rule).
• Require adversarial procurement structures—independent cost estimation, execution, and evaluation with aligned incentives.

Modern procurement methods already work in private industry and should be the norm in government.

Total Potential Savings – $230B

These savings don’t require austerity or pain—they just ask for better outcomes for taxpayer dollars. Prosperity is bipartisan.