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Supermicro has revised its revenue forecast downwards by a couple of billion dollars, but insisted it’s nothing to worry about.
The company on Thursday issued an update on its business ahead of the Q1 FY 2026 results it will deliver on November 4th.
The scary part was hidden in the document’s second bullet point, which reads “Design win upgrades pushed some expected Q1 26 revenue to Q2 26, resulting in estimated revenue in Q1'26 of $5B versus $6B-$7B guidance.”
Investors don’t like surprises like that, and Supermicro’s share price dropped sharply from over $52 to $48.30.
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Owners of Supermicro shares have seen this movie before: In April 2025 the company warned its revenue estimates were off by $1.5 billion.
That warning came after the company delayed delivery of its annual report in 2024, because it wasn’t sure its internal reporting was correct. The company’s auditor resigned, putting Supermicro at risk of losing its listing on the NASDAQ stock exchange.
That bourse had already booted Supermicro once, after it didn’t publish audited results in 2018. The company sorted out its paperwork and earned reinstatement.
The first bullet point in Thursday’s update was rather happier, as it reported “Recent design wins in excess of $12B, requesting delivery in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Q2’26).” The last news nugget in the update mentioned “Seeing robust demand for Supermicro Nvidia GB300, B300, RTX Pro, AMD 355X LC, now starting to ship.”
The latter is good news, as it mentions recent AI-related hardware that’s currently in high demand. The first point is also welcome, as $12 billion of design wins represents more than a third of the $33 billion revenue Supermicro has forecast for all of FY 2026.
Beyond the impact on Supermicro revenue, the shift of a project into Q2 due to upgrades is intriguing because there’s no info about the nature of the upgrade that’s caused the delay. If the upgrade involves more machines, it’s unclear why that delays delivery and revenue recognition. The Register fancies the delay is instead due to the need to source parts that weren’t in the original deal – perhaps different GPUs, or more memory, commodities that are in short supply – and mean Supermicro can’t send its hardware out the door in the required configuration. ®
