The $11T gap between White House and economists on Trump's 'big, beautiful' bill

An array of economists — from the Congressional Budget Office to the Tax Foundation to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model — have reached a similar conclusion: Trump's signature legislation comes with a price tag in the neighborhood of $3 trillion over the next decade.

They're all wrong, the White House says. And not just by a little.

President Trump and his aides have instead offered claims that the bill will make money and that the final tally for both the tax-cutting legislation and other parts of the Trump agenda will usher in a new golden age not just for the US economy but also for government debt.

The claims from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue go as high as $8 trillion in black ink (an $11 trillion chasm with the experts) in claims that go beyond what even Capitol Hill Republicans are projecting.

As for reconciling the two, some economists essentially throw up their hands.

"You can't square it because it's ridiculous," Erica York of the Tax Foundation said.

"The bill unambiguously will increase deficits, it will not contribute that much to economic growth," she added, noting that the bill is largely focused on extending current tax rates that would not be expected to push the economy significantly upward from current levels.

Yet the White House has remained steadfast even as this gap has led to increased tensions as the bill goes through another round of adjustments on Capitol Hill.

A Wednesday appearance before Congress by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was marked by lawmakers — mostly Democratic, but some Republicans as well — raising the debt issue.

In one colorful moment, Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson of California asked Bessent to point to an independent expert "not on the payroll of this administration" who says this bill will not add to our debt.

Bessent then cited Arthur Laffer, the former Reagan official and longtime Trump supporter who received the Presidential Medal of Freedom during the president's first term.

The comment led to laughter in the chamber, with Thompson shooting back, "I don't think that one counts."

It was a hearing where Bessent declined to repeat some of the administration's most aggressive claims, saying instead that "it remains to be seen" whether the bill will add to the national debt.

Others have not been so restrained about the impact of Trump's overall agenda.

"We're going to cut the deficit by $8 trillion over the next 10 years," press secretary Karoline Leavitt offered recently on Fox News.