The Case for Gradual Population Decline

Contrary to conventional wisdom, rapid population growth rarely delivers demographic dividends, while low fertility rates do not necessarily lead to stagnation. In fact, persistently high fertility often exacerbates underemployment, limits investment in education and infrastructure, and entrenches poverty across generations.

LONDON – While we should always be wary of proposing a universal law of human nature, the past half-century has revealed a consistent and enduring pattern. In every society that combines economic prosperity, a well-educated female population, and access to safe and affordable contraception, fertility rates fall below – often well below – the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.