Thousands Apply to Relocate as Island of Tuvalu Races Against Rising Seas

The First Climate Refugee Visas Are Here

Residents of Tuvalu, one of the world’s lowest-lying island nations, are preparing for a historic migration as the impacts of climate change push the country closer to becoming uninhabitable.

Thousands of Tuvaluans have applied for a new visa program that allows them to relocate to Australia in response to rising sea levels threatening their homeland.

The Pacific Engagement Visa, part of a treaty between Australia and Tuvalu, is the world’s first climate migration agreement. It offers Tuvaluan citizens the opportunity to permanently move to Australia to escape the imminent threat of flooding back home. Only 280 people will be accepted into the program each year, but more than 5,000 residents (nearly half the country's total population) have applied for the first round, which will be determined by random lottery system from now through January of 2026.

The urgency of the response underscores the severity of Tuvalu’s situation. Located in the South Pacific between Australia and Hawaii, Tuvalu consists of nine coral atolls with an average elevation of just six feet above sea level.

Some parts of the islands are only a few dozen feet wide. Even the country’s highest point is only 15 feet above sea level, nowhere near enough protection against the accelerating threat of sea level rise.

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The NASA Sea Level Change Team, using satellite data and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), reports that sea levels around Tuvalu are already nearly 6 inches higher than they were 30 years ago. By 2050, much of Tuvalu’s land and critical infrastructure is expected to be below high-tide levels. If current trends continue, the ocean could rise another 28 inches by the end of the century.

According to the NASA Sea Level Change Team, sea level surrounding Tuvalu has already risen nearly six inches since 1995.

Current projections show sea level is likely to rise another 2.5 feet in the next 75 hours, inundating much of Tuvalu's land and infrastructure.

In a worst-case climate scenario involving continued high emissions and polar ice sheet loss, sea levels could rise by as much as six feet by 2100.

The United Nations estimates that by that time, 95 percent of Tuvalu’s land, including the capital of Funafuti, could be underwater.

The planned migration marks a new chapter in the global story of climate change. Tuvalu’s situation serves as both a warning and a precedent for other vulnerable coastal and island communities. While the visa offers hope and security to many Tuvaluans, it also raises difficult questions about cultural preservation and what it means to lose a nation to rising seas.

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As climate change accelerates, so does the urgency for global solutions. Sea level change is not just Tuvalu’s problem. It is a looming crisis for hundreds of coastal cities and countries around the world. Understanding the nature of this threat will be critical for dozens of populations and governments in the years ahead.

In other words, Tuvalu may be the first to face this fate, but it won't be the last.

Weather.com lead editor Jenn Jordan explores how weather and climate weave through our daily lives, shape our routines and leave lasting impacts on our communities.