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1 month ago
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Below are two stories. Neither are true, but they do represent an amalgamation of real worldviews. I encourage you to read them with anthropological lens.
World A
Israel is fighting an existential war in good faith.
It’s lose lose because the enemy they fight is indoctrinated from childhood, they dream of martyrdom. They will either destroy you, or you will have to fight them (which means killing people you know are brainwashed, but what else can you do?)
Neutral people on the outside are against you, because they don’t understand the full picture, + it’s easy to criticize whichever entity has more power & agency.
“Why can’t you just stop the war? Just live in peace!”
We tried, goddamnit! We decided to live in peace - and they murdered our people. We forgave it, buried the hatchet, tried again, same thing. How many of YOUR people are you willing to sacrifice before you start fighting back?
This is not hard to prove. You could see it for yourself if you were here. If we all laid down our weapons, Israel would not exist. And then it would just be an existential war with someone else, on another border, closer to you. If that happens it will be very obvious which side is evil here, but by then it will be too late.
💖 But there’s good news ✨
Sentiment has flipped. Israel says “look, fine, here’s a peace deal”. A lot of countries stated they’re willing to recognize the state of Palestine in exchange for peace / Hamas stopping the aggression.
It’s in their hands now. If Hamas accepts it, win win! If they do not, then at least now there’s no confusion anymore.
To help spread this truth, they’re going to do open, coordinated messaging with a network of influencers. This will lead to less bloodshed if people understood the lose-lose situation Israel is in, and what an actual path to long term peace looks like.
The OTHER good news is that there appears to be a wave of Arabs proclaiming that they don’t even want the war, they are totally fine living in peace next to their Jewish neighbors & giving up the land. Now, these Arabs together with these public Israeli influencer networks can amplify the voices of truth and reason, and hating Israel will no longer be a part of the Arab identity.
“It’s impossible to find a Palestinian who accepts a sovereign Jewish state” → not anymore! The more this faction grows, the less bloodshed will happen.
A brighter future may be possible after all.
World B
Israel is initiating a war under false pretenses. A conspiracy is afoot.
The Arabs don’t actually matter to Israel that much - they are just easy targets. It’s easy to trigger a subset of them into violent action.
This is lose lose for the Arabs because you either (1) cooperate with Israel to do what it wants, or (2) the violent Islamic militants will overwhelm your countries.
There’s no winning here because even if you laid down all your weapons, and gave up all the land, your countries will still collapse in violent warfare (because the most radical versions of Islam will get support to gain control).
Q: How is this good for Israel?
A: It’s necessary for the greater good - to successfully pull off an “inversion”.
The steelman for Israel in this world is that they’re trying to pull off a “Game B”. Or, if you’re familiar with Asimov’s writing, it’s like trying to save humanity by establishing the Foundation.
The world as-is is broken, and if the status quo continues, no one will survive.
Humanity struggles to coordinate & come together without the stick, without some shared existential threat. So, triggering *a* threat is better than a slow death & decay for all. It’s unfortunate that you have to trigger innocent people and make them into a scapegoat, but they’re really not that innocent. It’s not like you’re forcing them to commit acts of terrorism. You’re just giving them the option. They are making their own choices for which it’s fair game if they face consequences.
💖 But there’s good news ✨
In this world, there’s no option where humanity does not ultimately win.
Either the plan works, all the good people come together against the scapegoats, and things get much worse for a while, but that helps them weather the necessary transition. One side loses, but, y’know, greater good.
OR, the plan fails, because enough people understand it. Recognition of the pattern is the only way to avoid playing into it. Humanity finds some other way to come together, to go through the necessary transition needed for survival.
It’s kind of a choice between a safe, predictable, bounded path (if albeit somewhat miserable) or an unpredictable, unbounded path.
