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The consensus has been wrong since January. The forecast for the past nine months has been that the US economy would slow down. But the reality is that it has simply not happened, see chart below. GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.8%, and the Atlanta Fed predicts that GDP in the third quarter will be 3.9%. Yes, job growth is slowing, but this is the result of slowing immigration.
The bottom line is that the US economy remains remarkably resilient, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to argue that we are still waiting for the delayed negative effects of what happened six months ago on Liberation Day in April.
For investors, this means that the upside risks to inflation are growing, particularly if the Fed continues to cut rates.
Note: Q3 2025 GDP = Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate. Sources: BEA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief EconomistThis presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).
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