XRP Climbs 4% as Fed Rate Cut Bets Hit 99% Probability

Support has held firm above $2.88, but repeated failures near $2.99 highlight how institutional flows are dictating short-term ranges.

Updated Sep 9, 2025, 4:38 a.m. Published Sep 9, 2025, 4:38 a.m.

What to know:

The digital asset rallied toward the $3.00 threshold on explosive volume before consolidating, as traders positioned around upcoming macro catalysts and ETF rulings. Support has held firm above $2.88, but repeated failures near $2.99 highlight how institutional flows are dictating short-term ranges.

News Background

• Federal Reserve futures now imply a 99% chance of a 25-bps cut on September 17, boosting crypto as a dollar-weakening trade.
• Exchange reserves rose to a 12-month peak, signaling more supply on exchanges even as whales accumulated an estimated 10M XRP in 15 minutes during the breakout.
• Six spot XRP ETF applications are pending SEC review in October, a structural catalyst traders are monitoring.

Price Action Summary

• Session ran from September 8 04:00 to September 9 03:00.
• XRP advanced from $2.89 to $2.995 intraday (+4%) before closing at $2.95.
• Volume spiked to 159.63M at 13:00—nearly 3x daily norms—confirming institutional participation.
• Support held multiple times at $2.88–$2.89, while $2.995–$3.00 was repeatedly rejected.
• Final hour saw a grind higher: $2.94 → $2.95 (+0.34%) on 1.6M volume, with higher lows showing controlled accumulation.

Technical Analysis

• Support: $2.88–$2.89 zone continues to attract buyers.
• Resistance: $2.995–$3.00 ceiling remains intact after multiple high-volume rejections.
• Momentum: RSI steady in mid-50s = neutral-to-bullish bias.
• MACD: Histogram converging toward bullish crossover, consistent with accumulation.
• Pattern: Price compressing within a consolidation channel under $3.00. A confirmed close above $3.00–$3.05 could target $3.30–$3.50.

What Traders Are Watching

• Ability to close above $2.99–$3.00. Bulls want a clean daily settlement above the zone to flip resistance into support.
• Fed meeting on Sept. 17. A 25-bps cut is fully priced; anything larger or delayed could alter crypto liquidity expectations sharply.
• Whale inflows. Roughly 340M tokens reportedly accumulated in recent weeks. Traders are gauging whether this continues into ETF decision season.
• SEC’s October ETF rulings. Six applications, including from Grayscale and Bitwise, could transform institutional access and reprice XRP’s structural demand.

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